We all have these preconceived notions about players in different situations and think they’ll be a boom or bust situation as a result. We also listen to whatever Matthew Berry or some other fantasy expert has to say. Fact of the matter is, we just don’t REALLY know until we actually play the games. Here’s what we learned this season and should take note for next season.
Julio Jones is Entering Bottom WR1 Territory
Gone are the days where Julio Jones should be considered one of the top 3 WR’s off the board. We used to think the top 3 WR’s were in some order Odell Beckham Jr., Antonio Brown and Julio Jones but Julio is just not there anymore. Jones had just 3 touchdowns this year (2 in 1 game) and has just 9 touchdowns over his last 2 seasons. DeAndre Hopkins, Davante Adams and Jimmy Graham all had more than that in this season alone. To take it another step further, in the 2 year span it took Jones to catch 9 touchdowns (30 total games), Antonio Brown caught 21 (29 games), Jordy Nelson caught 20 (30 games, some with Hundley at QB), Mike Evans caught 17 (31 games) and OBJ caught 13 (20 games). Jones has also caught just 10 touchdowns once during his career. While Jones is heavily targeted, he does not find the end zone. He’ll also be 29 years old entering next season.
Dez Bryant is Likely a WR3
Dak Prescott is not a WR friendly QB. He uses his own legs and relies heavily on Zeke Elliott. Dez played all 16 games this year and totaled just 69 catches for 838 yards and 6 touchdowns. Pretty pedestrian numbers. Dez hasn’t eclipsed 10 touchdowns or 1,000 yards since 2014 and will enter next season 29 years old going on 30 in November. He still holds some upside given his physical attributes and the fact that he was once a star, but don’t expect star performances on a semi weekly basis going forward.
Doug Martin Was and Still is Trash
Can we move on from the thought that Doug Martin is a good running back? He’s been good twice, during the 2 times he needed to be good (his rookie year and final year of his rookie contract). Outside of those 2 seasons, Martin has been under 4 yards per carry and 500 rushing yards for the season. He’ll be 29 years old next season, please stop thinking he’s going to work out.
Don’t Trust Committees Coming Into the Season
So many experts were high on either Eddie Lacy, Thomas Rawls or CJ Prosise. The same can be said for Hunter Henry. I was extremely confused by all the hype around these players and was certain none would end up on my team. Since when has a 3 headed RB committee been fantasy relevant? Even if you expected one to beat the others out, I wasn’t going to draft one and risk a 33% chance on that pick that one would beat the other 2 out. No one beat anyone out and they all failed. As for Hunter Henry, the last time 2 tight ends from one team were that fantasy relevant was Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.. and they had Tom Brady throwing the ball. Don’t get me wrong, I liked Hunter Henry, but I knew it would take some time or for Antonio Gates to get banged up early on to give more way to Henry. I actually like Henry next year given Gates is one more year older now but to think that was going to work out last year was crazy.