ESPN has put out its first (waaaay too early) fantasy football mock draft for the 2018 season this week. Now it should be noted that because it’s extremely early, some things may not be taken into account. For example, guys Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray still don’t have a home and Mark Ingram’s four game suspension may not be taken into account. Let’s take a look at some picks I like, don’t like, or see a ton of value in.
Round 1, Pick 10: WR Julio Jones – ATL
Stop me if you’ve heard this before, but I’m no longer a Julio Jones fan at this point in his career. I’m not saying he’s a bad player by any means, he’s just not worth my 1st round pick. Again, Julio had just THREE touchdowns last year, 2 in one game and one from Mohamed Sanu and not Matt Ryan. He gave you 16 games played last year but he often left a game early or forced himself into a game and served as a decoy, which never helps you in fantasy. He’s 29 years old and often injured. The Falcons love to keep their 2 younger RBs involved in the passing game. Add in the fact TE Austin Hooper has one more year of experience under his belt and the Falcons spent a 1st round pick on Alabama WR Calvin Ridley, yeah I’m off Julio Jones as a 1st round pick. Love him in round 2, but I need more than 9 total touchdowns over his last 2 years to spend a 1st round pick on a 29 year old WR.
Round 3, Pick 30: WR Larry Fitzgerald – ARI
I’m at a loss for words on this one. I get it, Fitzgerald had a great season and is a future Hall of Famer, but pick 30 overall? Sam Bradford isn’t necessarily a WR friendly QB and I’m not banking on Josh Rosen being a stud overnight. There’s a lot of question surrounding the quarterback position in Arizona. Now factor in the fact that Fitzgerald will be 35 years old when the season starts and I’m lost as to how Fitzgerald was selected ahead of the likes of Tyreek Hill, Stefon Diggs and Brandin Cooks. It’s also worth noting that Fitzgerald’s numbers were inflated last year due to the absence of RB David Johnson for all but 1 game. Don’t forget Johnson caught 80 passes in 2016 and he’ll look to do that again in 2018.
Round 7, Pick 78: RB Lamar Miller – HOU
Lamar Miller was consistently decent last year. He was nothing to write home about at all and with another year of tread on his tires, I’m not excited about him at all. He averaged just 3.7 yards per carry last year and at times was outplayed by rookie D’Onta Foreman. Foreman was injured late last year but reports say he’ll be ready for training camp. To be honest, I’m not even entirely sure Miller will make the Texans roster this year. The Texans can cut Miller with 2 years and $14 million remaining on his deal and incur just $2 million in dead cap. I’m sure he’s still on the roster for now as insurance incase Foreman isn’t progressing as they would have hoped. It would suck to have your 7th round pick potentially cut and sign on elsewhere where he’s not in a place to produce like you would have hoped. I’m holding off on Lamar Miller at this point, not a ton of upside on all fronts.
Round 7, Pick 79: WR Will Fuller – HOU
Once Deshaun Watson hit his stride, Will Fuller went on a tear, the whole Houston offense did really. DeAndre Hopkins will continue to get his just based on his natural athletic ability but in doing so, he’ll also see double teams letting Fuller reap all the benefits of one on one coverage. Fuller had a four game stretch where he caught SEVEN touchdowns. At pick 79, Fuller is the 35th WR off the board which means he’s likely a WR3 for you. He’ll probably have the most upside among all WR3’s coming into this season. With Watson back in the fold, I like Fuller here in round 7.
For more on view ESPN’s PPR mock draft here.